After decades of expensive development and false starts, the world is finally ready for EVs. For the purpose of this report, the term “electric vehicles” includes commercial approaches such as pure battery-powered, plug-in hybrid, hybrid internal combustion/battery, range extended, and FCVs, as well as vehicles powered by developmental power sources such as supercapacitors and flywheel. In addition to cars and trucks, this report considers motorcycles, scooters, buses, neighborhood EVs, self-driving carts, military vehicles, and locomotives.
This report details actual figures for 2013 and 2016 and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) projections for 2017 through 2022 for the global and four regional markets. Power source sales and values are provided under consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. A patent analysis and discussion of power sources and vehicle components describes the areas in which research is being performed and emphasizes intellectual property issues.
Note that values are expressed in million dollars and shipments are expressed in 1,000 vehicles. In both cases, totals are rounded to the nearest integer (i.e., less than $500,000 is expressed as 0.)
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Values are based on the equivalent of wholesale, or the price charged to the retailer prior to mark-up. However, advanced EVs are sold at a price below actual manufacturing cost. This may be due to regulatory compliance or the desire to establish a market before economics of scale kicks in. The cost to consumers may be reduced considerably when government subsidies or possible tax breaks are added to the dealer price.
As defined by BCC Research for this report, EVs and FCVs include the following:
– EVs (pure EVs).
Specific types of vehicles using these batteries include:
– Passenger vehicles (sedans, microcars, SUVs, crossover SUVs, pickup trucks, sports cars).
– Low-velocity vehicles (golf carts, neighborhood EVs, personal mobility devices).
– Scooters (two-wheelers, motorcycles, some three-wheelers).
– Commercial/industrial vehicles (material handling equipment, burden carriers, forklifts, trucks).
– Niche vehicles (self-driving vehicles, military equipment, locomotives).
This report defines the market sectors, identifies leading companies and analyzes the markets to provide a five-year market forecast. Finally, the company profiles section provides the status of and recent events for companies making power sources.
– 158 data tables and 69 additional tables
– An overview of the global market for electric vehicles, including battery-powered vehicles, fuel-cell-powered vehicles, and hybrid vehicles.
– Analyses of global market trends, with data from 2016, estimates for 2017, and projections of compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) through 2022.
– Details on many types of electric vehicles being considered, including passenger cars, trucks, buses, e-bikes and scooters, motorcycles, and material handling and industrial vehicles.
– Discussion on the developing EV markets, such as military vehicles, locomotives, marine vehicles, and vehicle auxiliary power units.
– A summary of the power sources that make these vehicles possible, including lead-acid, nickel-metal hydride, lithium-ion batteries and proton-exchange membrane fuel cells; niche power source possibilities are also considered.
– Profiles of leading companies in the industry, including: AC Propulsion, AMZ-Kutno, Arcimoto, AstonBus USA, BAE Systems, Bentley Motors Inc., Blue Sky Design LLC, BNSF Railway, Bolloré, Boulder Electric Vehicle, Brammo Inc.
As defined in this report, the global EV market will be worth over $75.7 billion in 2017 and is estimated to increase to almost $128.0 billion in 2022. This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% between 2017 and 2022 under a consensus scenario.
Much of this value and growth will result from passenger EVs. BCC Research anticipates a $63.2 billion annual passenger EV market in 2022 under a consensus scenario. An optimistic but still possible scenario could see a market worth more than $71.5 billion in 2022 (based on a 15.7% CAGR). The consensus scenario is based on the sale of over two million passenger EVs annually by 2022.
This volume of shipments is dwarfed by the largest segment of the EV market based on number of units. More than 55 million battery-powered scooters and bikes will be shipped in 2017, mainly to meet near insatiable demand in the Far East. Despite regulations designed to discourage the use of eBikes, shipments are on track to grow to 70 million units in 2022. Under an optimistic scenario, 2022 shipments could be more than 79 million units, mainly based on expanded sales outside of China, especially in India. Against expectations, most of these EVs are powered using lead-acid batteries.
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BCC Research also analyzed the rapidly recovering FCV market to present a series of consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Under a consensus scenario, about 37,000 vehicles could be shipped annually in 2022. An optimistic scenario could see more players and more widely available hydrogen fueling infrastructure, which would result in more than 38,000 FCVs sold annually in 2022. This will be very close to the tipping point, where refueling infrastructure becomes economical using reasonable near-term assumptions. Even a pessimistic scenario could still see an annual global market of 18,000 shipments. Definitions of these consensus, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are described in detail in the report.
The following table summarizes the global historic and projected EV market under a consensus scenario. Please refer to this report’s Vehicle Market sections for detailed definitions of each market as well as point-by-point lists and discussions of influencing factors and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.